Planning for 2026 in a Wobbly Economy: A Framework Every Small Business Needs
As we close out 2025, there’s a common theme I’m hearing from business owners everywhere:
“Something feels off… but I can’t quite put my finger on it.”
Maybe demand feels unpredictable. Maybe your expenses have quietly crept up. Maybe planning for next year feels harder than it ever has before.
If you’re feeling this wobble in your business, you are not alone and there are real economic reasons behind it.
In this article, I’ll break down why the economy feels unstable right now, why small businesses are feeling the squeeze more than large companies, and most importantly, how to create a realistic, grounded, and confidence-building plan for 2026 using the Wobbly Economy Planning Framework I teach clients.
Let’s get you steady again.
Why Everything Feels “Off” Right Now
2025 brought major economic shifts: a new administration, new business policies, rising tariffs, and a push to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. These changes increased costs across the board, from materials to freight to everyday living.
Here’s the kicker:
Inflation has been stubbornly sticky.
Labor costs are rising.
Demand is softening because consumers are being more cautious.
And while big corporations barely flinch during times like this, small businesses feel the impact immediately. Large enterprises have layers of insulation; diversified revenue, large cash reserves, investment portfolios, and teams built with redundancy.
Small business owners? You’re running lean. Every shift hits close to the bone.
This is why planning for 2026 feels so much harder: you’re trying to build a plan while the ground underneath you keeps moving.
The Four Biggest Planning Mistakes Business Owners Make During Uncertain Times
When the economy wobbles, many small businesses unintentionally sabotage their growth by reacting with fear instead of strategy. Here are the top mistakes I see:
1. Trying to cut your way to growth
You cannot slash expenses and expect revenue to rise. Cutting excessively is a contraction move, not a growth strategy.
2. Building one rigid plan
Uncertain times require flexible, scenario-based planning. One plan won’t cut it because the market isn’t stable enough to support single-point forecasting.
3. Freezing hiring and overloading your team
If you need to hire, you need to hire. Freezing hiring in a small business creates burnout, turnover, and capacity ceilings you cannot overcome alone.
4. Delaying necessary pricing decisions
Avoiding price evaluation only backs you into crisis decisions later. No, this doesn’t mean discounting. It means understanding your margins and making intentional moves.
The Wobbly Economy Planning Framework
This is a planning approach I’ve used inside Fortune 100 companies and with every size of small business. It’s designed for times when the ground is shifting and clarity feels harder to find.
Here’s how it works:
1. Build Three Scenario-Based Plans
You should never enter a new year with just one plan. Instead, create:
Best Case Plan — your aspirational growth trajectory
Likely Case Plan — your realistic, data-driven projection
Worst Case Plan — your contingency strategy if the market contracts
This gives you flexibility no matter what 2026 brings.
2. Evaluate Your Offers as a Portfolio
Look at what goes in three buckets:
Core offers: What you’ll keep and continue scaling
Experiments: New ideas, innovations, or relaunches worth testing
Retirements: Offers you’ll phase out, restructure, or stop selling
Healthy offer portfolios de-risk your business and keep your revenue balanced.
3. Build an Expense Strategy
Decide ahead of time:
What expenses are essential
What can be cut if revenue contracts
When you categorize expenses before you’re emotional, you make clear, strategic decisions instead of panic-driven ones.
4. Establish Cash + Margin Guardrails
This is where your financial team becomes key. You should know:
Your real gross and net margins
Your cash strategy and account structures
The minimum margin thresholds you will not cross
These guardrails protect your business from unexpected drops.
5. Define the Metrics That Matter
Your plan is only as strong as your reporting. Determine:
What KPIs you will measure
How often you’ll review them
What decisions those metrics will inform
Whether the economy is stable or wobbly, data is your anchor.
Your Role as the Leader Matters More Than Ever
Your team and clients look to you for cues, not certainty, but clarity.
If you’re anxious, they’ll feel anxious.
If you’re grounded, they’ll steady themselves.
If you show them a clear path, they’ll follow it.
Leading in uncertain times isn’t about having all the answers. It’s about communicating confidently, staying adaptable, and modeling the energy you want your team to embody.
If You’re Feeling Stuck, Don’t Stay There
Planning in a wobbly economy is not the moment to go it alone. You don’t need more information, you need a partner to help you turn your goals into a clear, actionable, flexible plan.
My team does this every day.
If you need support creating your 2026 scenarios, reviewing your offers, or stabilizing your business strategy, book a free consultation
With the right plan, you can create extraordinary momentum in 2026; no matter what the economy does next.
