Why Fourth Quarter Success Actually Starts in September
Most business owners think of Q4 as October through December. If you’re waiting until October to get serious about your goals, you’re already behind.
The truth is, the fourth quarter really starts in September. And treating it this way can make the difference between scrambling to hit your revenue targets in December and cruising into the new year with momentum, profit, and peace of mind.
In this post, I’ll share what analysts are predicting about consumer behavior for the 2025 holiday season, and my best tips for how you can use September to set yourself up for your most successful Q4 yet.
The Consumer Spending Outlook for 2025
Understanding consumer behavior is the key to planning a smart fourth quarter. Here’s what analysts are predicting this year:
Gen Z: Shrinking their holiday spending and prioritizing experiences over products. Think trips, concerts, and events, not sweaters or candles. If you sell experiences, now’s the time to capture their attention.
Lower middle class: Expected to spend more this holiday season, especially on family-driven purchases. This group is motivated by traditions and celebrations.
Upper middle class: Pulling back and being more cautious with spending. Their dollars are still in play, but you’ll need to be strategic to capture them.
Affluent consumers: No change. They remain steady buyers with plenty of disposable income. If luxury is your market, you’re in a good position.
The takeaway? You can’t rely on last year’s playbook. Consumer behavior is shifting, and your Q4 strategy needs to reflect today’s reality.
Why September Matters More Than You Think
Here’s the big shift: September is not just the “planning month.” It’s the first month of Q4 action.
Why? Because:
Volatility is real. None of us can predict what November and December will look like. Tariffs, jobs reports, and consumer confidence shift too quickly.
Disposable income is available now. In September and October, buyers still have discretionary money before the holiday sales blitz begins. If you offer something “too good to refuse” now, you’ll capture attention and revenue early.
Momentum builds profit. The sooner you start stacking promotions, campaigns, and cash-generating activities, the sooner you’ll hit profitability. By the time Black Friday rolls around, you should already be meeting or exceeding your annual goal.
Remember, the origin of Black Friday wasn’t a shopping holiday. It was the day retailers finally moved from “in the red” to “in the black.” That should be your goal too, hit your numbers early so everything after that is icing on the cake.
Planning Beyond December: Why Q4 Is Really Five Months
Here’s the part most business owners miss: Q4 isn’t just three months. It’s five.
If you want to start 2026 strong, you need to plan January now. Too many businesses coast through the end of the year, then wake up on January 2nd with no plan. The result? They lose all of January to confusion and analysis paralysis.
Instead, outline your January strategy today. Whether it’s a product launch, a new campaign, or a seasonal push, having a plan in place will allow you to hit the ground running and keep your revenue flowing.
Avoid the Trap of Impatience
One of the biggest mistakes I see during Q4 is reacting too quickly to short-term data.
A slow day or two doesn’t mean your campaign has failed. It may just mean your buyers are waiting until the weekend, or until they see a trigger that motivates them. If you panic and change course too quickly, you risk losing the results you would have had by staying the course.
The key is to monitor your data closely, act with urgency when necessary, and avoid being reactionary. Patience and strategy always beat chaos and panic.
My Best Tips for a Successful Q4
To recap, here’s how to set yourself up for success:
Start Q4 in September. Launch a bold, attention-grabbing promotion now.
Stack your momentum. Layer revenue-driving activities so you’re profitable before Black Friday.
Plan January early. Treat Q4 as five months, not three.
React thoughtfully. Monitor your data, but don’t panic over short-term results.
Tailor to your audience. Align your strategy with current consumer trends, not last year’s.
Ready for a Done-for-You Q4 Plan?
If reading this makes you realize your Q4 plan isn’t where it should be, we can help.
We are quietly offering a handful of private 4-hour VIP planning sessions. In these sessions, we’ll build your entire Q4 strategy using our Growth Formula Framework. You’ll walk away with a tactical, step-by-step plan that:
Aligns with consumer spending trends
Stacks revenue-driving actions in the right order
Prepares you for January (and beyond)
Gives you the confidence to end the year strong
These sessions aren’t publicly advertised. If you’re reading this, you’re part of the small circle that knows they exist.
👉 Click here to book a call and secure your spot.
Here’s to your best Q4 yet.
